Research article

Trend in Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment of Nigerian Gulf of Guinea

*¹Ify L. Nwaogazie and ²Itolima Ologhadien

¹Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Port Harcourt, Uniport Box 156, Choba, Nigeria

²Department of Civil Engineering, University of Science and Technology, PMB 5080, Nkpolu Port Harcourt, Nigeria

*Corresponding Author E-mail:  ify.nwaogazie@cohseuniport.com, itolima2000@yahoo.com

Accepted 12 October 2014

Abstract

The study was carried out to assess level of climate change along the Nigerian Atlantic coast (Gulf of Guinea). Historic data on annual mean temperature (1970 – 2006); rainfall (1931 – 2008); mean sea level (1989 – 1992) and relative humidity (1990 – 2009) for Port Harcourt City and Bonny on the coastal zone of Nigeria were analyzed by moving averages to determine the trends of the climate change for the purpose of forecasting future variations. The observed mean maximum temperature rise per decade was 1.8^oC while the mean minimum rise was 2.21^oC per decade. The rising temperature coupled with increasing rainfall of 55.2mm per decade would cause a predicted sea level rise of 8.3cm per decade. These predictions would impact negatively on sustainable development, ecological systems and biodiversity. The predicted sea level rise may be simulated on Digital Terrain Model to assess the level of vulnerability of the coastal settlements. The rising sea level combined with extreme rainfall will exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding and insecurity to coastal communities and infrastructure. Consequently, higher return period events must be provided to account for climate change.

Keywords: Climate Change, trend analysis, tide, coastal flooding and mean sea level, Gulf of Guinea.